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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."